Consumption Model Calibration and Related Statistical Problems

Authors: Marek Brabec, Marek Malý, Emil Pelikán, Ondřej Konár
Publication year: 2009
Publication type: Konferenční příspěvek (mezinárodní konf.)
Periodical: Applied Economics, Business and Development
Projects: Mathematical modelling of natural gas consumption for small and middle clients
Bibliographic citation: BRABEC, Marek, MALÝ, Marek, PELIKÁN, Emil, KONÁR, Ondřej. Consumption Model Calibration and Related Statistical Problems. In: PERLOVSKY, L., DIONYSIOU, D.D., KOSTIC, L.A., GONZALEZ-CONCEPCION, C., JABERG, H., MASTORAKIS, N.E., ZAHARIM, A., SOPIAN, K., eds. Applied Economics, Business and Development. Athens: WSEAS Press, 2009, S. 141-146. ISBN 978-960-474-091-8.
ID: 327471

Abstract

In this paper, we will discuss a problem pertinent to many situations in which a statistical model is developed on a sample of individuals (describing their trajectories), but then it is applied on a much larger population of interest. Typical examples occur in natural gas and other energy consumption contexts. Due to various deficiencies of the original sample-only based model, due to possible inconsistencies between sample and the population as a whole, and/or due to inherently different nature of the available sample and populational data (their measurement, error properties, etc.), calibration arises as a natural way to improve original model. We will introduce a formal and flexible, time-varying statistical model of state-space nature, from which such a calibration will come out as one of the products.