CARMINE: The simulation of local-scale effects of nature-based solutions in European cities using PALM

Abstract

ZÁKLADNÍ ÚDAJE: PMC26 Book of Abstracts. Hannover: Leibniz University Hannover, German Weather Service, 2026. s. 32-32. [PMC 26: PALM Model Conference. 23.02.2026-26.02.2026, Hannover]. ABSTRAKT: Nature-based Solutions (NBS) are essential for sustaining the adaptive capacity of socio-ecological systems. They must play a bigger role in land-use management and infrastructure planning to reduce costs, provide climate-resilient services, and improve compliance with Water Framework Directive requirements for good ecological status. One key knowledge gap is the co-design, upscaling, and out-scaling of NBS implementation at the local level (tens of meters). This approach is presently under-explored and under-exploited in metropolitan communities. Specific NBS interventions in cities, such as urban green infrastructure corridors, green or wetland roofs, rain gardens, flood risk prevention schemes, or brownfield regeneration, inter alia, have been shown to produce significant, tangible, and measurable benefits for different municipalities. Horizon project CARMINE analyses the benefits of simulated NBS effects across 8 European case study areas for local climate adaptation. Stakeholders will incorporate simulation results into a climate risk assessment and co-develop local/regional modelling frameworks and climate resilience pathways. To effectively protect against multiple, and increasingly frequent, natural hazards and compound extreme events such as epidemics, droughts, heat waves, storms, floods and wildfires, cities need to develop holistic approaches that go beyond the core city, historic centre, or business district. The ambition of the CARMINE project is to bridge the gap in city scales and to provide tools and results for science-supported decision-making.